Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3833

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3832, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3833
    20 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC

    SELENOS

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSELENOS in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered51a3232028e231c2

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6bfef01a4ce1f51dcd9b8569…
    follows dbd9d7923beb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3833: SELENOS in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.12, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SELENOS in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.