Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3806

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.638). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3805, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3806
    20 Oct 2026, 03:26 UTC

    SH3TC2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSH3TC2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede9c9c2ab150d7fd1

    discovery-0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.269 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.638)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    595d6592fd5235785480ad1b…
    follows 4942a224dab1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3806: SH3TC2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH3TC2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.