Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3782

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3781, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3782
    20 Oct 2026, 02:53 UTC

    MAPK3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAPK3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered75994960ac33a3e6

    discovery+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8cf9e35c2201d3d38df71f5c…
    follows 092840bdcd7e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3782: MAPK3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18) vs -0.06 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPK3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MAPK3 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.30 p 0.286 (needs p < 5.1e-4)