Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3723

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.184). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3722, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3723
    20 Oct 2026, 02:17 UTC

    TEKT4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTEKT4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddca9e2bc8153d0e4

    discovery-0.49 p=0.184 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.184)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    050d1a406b55b5a4efe64f95…
    follows c8606d85f0c7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3723: TEKT4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TEKT4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.