Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0370

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.137). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 369, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0370
    16 Oct 2026, 23:05 UTC

    TNPO3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNPO3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede463e8bdaf76f5af

    discovery+0.54 p=0.137 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.137)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    550250e111399204c2a48c5f…
    follows fc134eef0fba…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0370: TNPO3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.13, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNPO3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.