Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0037

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.31, p 0.289). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 36, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0037
    16 Oct 2026, 15:18 UTC

    PSAP

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionPSAP in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registeredd05bdc9cf2c19d8d

    discovery+0.31 p=0.289 n=27

    replication-0.32 p=0.240 n=28

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.31, p 0.289)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e8b05ad41d9fb3ac2c98381c…
    follows c6f8721569e5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0037: PSAP in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.916, n 55), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.01 (p 0.966, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.983, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.07, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.709, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for PSAP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.