Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3661

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3660, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3661
    20 Oct 2026, 00:48 UTC

    DMD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDMD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfac4a8c3b30eb631

    discovery+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.441 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    517ad969fab6a15c9e9db72d…
    follows 1d7bc52468bf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3661: DMD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DMD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.