Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3657

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0062; held-out +0.27 p 0.476). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3656, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3657
    20 Oct 2026, 00:43 UTC

    CAMK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCAMK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered91c4abe59c9fb913

    discovery-0.82 p=0.0062 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.476 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0062; held-out +0.27 p 0.476)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    84b0f27f04c886dc4d6a2842…
    follows 1bbee0ac06b2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3657: CAMK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAMK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.