Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3591

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.565). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3590, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3591
    19 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC

    NTRK3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNTRK3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfb417b20b3370d17

    discovery-0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.565)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    43321d707547f1cdef4fc080…
    follows c7593e77fdaf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3591: NTRK3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NTRK3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.