Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3537

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.095). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3536, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3537
    19 Oct 2026, 22:01 UTC

    ATCAY

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionATCAY in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5d7844632854c432

    discovery-0.59 p=0.095 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.095)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9d7c031628574f13af9cffed…
    follows 0a6a634d8455…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3537: ATCAY in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATCAY in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.