Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3534

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out +0.28 p 0.470). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3533, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3534
    19 Oct 2026, 21:58 UTC

    MDGA2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMDGA2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb69cb901e1c8281d

    discovery-0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.470 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out +0.28 p 0.470)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9ea6beccdbd96b93e2ad8a8f…
    follows 70f95be1345c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3534: MDGA2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MDGA2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.