Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3485

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3484, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3485
    19 Oct 2026, 20:52 UTC

    PELI1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPELI1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbecc1a9019ad5460

    discovery+0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication+0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    91343b63408cc56887aa3952…
    follows 6429e8714a28…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3485: PELI1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PELI1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.