Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3443

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.638). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3442, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3443
    19 Oct 2026, 19:57 UTC

    ASAH1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionASAH1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered48d4ff2358abd4a2

    discovery+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.504 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.638)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4b0a8f51ccef770e4ba86847…
    follows 3203e6f8d018…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3443: ASAH1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.22, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ASAH1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.