Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3423

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.735). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3422, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3423
    19 Oct 2026, 19:32 UTC

    CA8

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCA8 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22a99b0ade96ebeb

    discovery-0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.735)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    50717ab391f6dd94bd53e5a0…
    follows f50f6823837e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3423: CA8 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CA8 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.