Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0034

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.255). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 33, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0034
    16 Oct 2026, 15:17 UTC

    CHRM1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHRM1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc326e31950b7b3f1

    discovery-0.18 p=0.255 n=42

    replication+0.14 p=0.385 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.255)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c2fe33a22b1550bc43b1ec94…
    follows bca85a89005c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0034: CHRM1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.897, n 84), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.20. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.09 (p 0.402, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.439, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.02, sign flips 14; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.992, n 75). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.31 (p 0.0043, n 84) vs -0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHRM1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up CHRM1 · OPCs · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.10 p 0.399 (needs p < 0.0083)