Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3334

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.145). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3333, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3334
    19 Oct 2026, 17:39 UTC

    TLR7

    microglia, braak

    predictionTLR7 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredca8a8c51c62e63b8

    discovery+0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.145)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5de394ce1efa6436d440973c…
    follows a7f3c16a1422…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3334: TLR7 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18), 95% CI +0.18 to +0.83. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.69 (p 0.0015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.54 to +0.77, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TLR7 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.