Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3294

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3293, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3294
    19 Oct 2026, 16:46 UTC

    IRS1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIRS1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredad214490405631fd

    discovery+0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    replication+0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0cbee58c20af55aeb3f57f6a…
    follows 6038430fa229…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3294: IRS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18), 95% CI +0.07 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18) vs +0.52 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IRS1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up IRS1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.68 p 0.016 (needs p < 5.7e-4)