Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3232

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3231, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3232
    19 Oct 2026, 15:21 UTC

    NGFR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNGFR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered486eb000fc0c4378

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ff99a54eabe8034ec33627a3…
    follows 7145b03a9dbf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3232: NGFR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0067, n 18) vs -0.28 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NGFR in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NGFR · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.50 p 0.076 (needs p < 5.9e-4)