Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3219

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.202). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3218, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3219
    19 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC

    ESR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionESR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered57aa7f2a25fa8d34

    discovery+0.47 p=0.202 n=9

    replication+0.62 p=0.074 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.202)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4da41c387cff9bd3bd49e84f…
    follows dbb515dd9f8d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3219: ESR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI +0.12 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.49 to +0.73, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ESR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.