Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3147

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.303). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3146, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3147
    19 Oct 2026, 13:20 UTC

    CD19

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCD19 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4fa38afc1bcefe00

    discovery-0.39 p=0.303 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.303)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6f1f5e7747cad469274b27f7…
    follows f158fdd25413…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3147: CD19 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD19 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.