Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0031

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.638). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 30, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0031
    16 Oct 2026, 15:14 UTC

    MAPT

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMAPT in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4dc0a97f8a29d7f2

    discovery+0.07 p=0.638 n=42

    replication+0.02 p=0.902 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.638)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    246c8fa7605356533f0f4549…
    follows 4889b40ca4eb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0031: MAPT in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.635, n 84), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.26. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.02 (p 0.839, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.09 (p 0.422); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.988, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.314, n 75). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPT in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.