Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3098

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3097, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3098
    19 Oct 2026, 12:17 UTC

    RHBDL3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionRHBDL3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9768bd5d74b5f2dd

    discovery-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.127 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    54aafb4e664352f3d889f540…
    follows 56a1b1dcd2cb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3098: RHBDL3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RHBDL3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.