Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3021

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.520). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3020, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3021
    19 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC

    USP24

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionUSP24 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd29af13953b3d9a2

    discovery+0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    replication+0.62 p=0.074 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.520)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    77a83c97a069f5c6cedd52f5…
    follows e6ea9bfb3677…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3021: USP24 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USP24 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.