Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2980

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2979, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2980
    19 Oct 2026, 09:43 UTC

    G6PD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionG6PD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered583d2803d5d7ae35

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d3c53c4fc58d115b6760c721…
    follows 488528821cf0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2980: G6PD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.78 (p 1.2e-4, n 18) vs -0.19 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for G6PD in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up G6PD · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured