Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2978

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.042; held-out +0.13 p 0.735). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2977, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2978
    19 Oct 2026, 09:40 UTC

    PRR14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRR14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered80159757ed3213f4

    discovery-0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.042; held-out +0.13 p 0.735)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c8e2621f25682f88d476ad46…
    follows 7c78e8367b53…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2978: PRR14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRR14 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.