Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2961

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.773). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2960, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2961
    19 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC

    AKT3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionAKT3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered899e9b6c2c8b7f02

    discovery+0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.773)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    29c9e56082aeef62054beaab…
    follows a034117fb300…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2961: AKT3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.20, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AKT3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.