Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2908

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.140). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2907, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2908
    19 Oct 2026, 08:01 UTC

    DLG1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDLG1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7b44c128819d6685

    discovery+0.53 p=0.140 n=9

    replication+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.140)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    52021fffaa9ffc1bc06b2c20…
    follows cc5b422454cd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2908: DLG1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DLG1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.