Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2844

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.602). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2843, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2844
    19 Oct 2026, 06:33 UTC

    CACNA1F

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCACNA1F in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1f7f84e32981b50d

    discovery-0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.602)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c127446da71d9921db7252f3…
    follows 2b3679e8a32f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2844: CACNA1F in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CACNA1F in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.