Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2831

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2830, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2831
    19 Oct 2026, 06:16 UTC

    TET2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTET2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5f45d3cdd9f9316a

    discovery+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    replication+0.88 p=0.0017 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2d74d52b8023a16d9d7e3df0…
    follows 1bbfd4ad82b6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2831: TET2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18), 95% CI +0.22 to +0.85. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.59 to +0.83, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18) vs +0.63 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TET2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TET2 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 6.5e-4)