Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2787

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.235). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2786, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2787
    19 Oct 2026, 05:10 UTC

    CTTN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCTTN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredae21bca9897cf904

    discovery-0.44 p=0.235 n=9

    replication+0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.235)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    17a3f95ae4123752e484e77f…
    follows 320e33dce4ef…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2787: CTTN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTTN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.