Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2624

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.668). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2623, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2624
    19 Oct 2026, 02:13 UTC

    NUS1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUS1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22503d02575c4551

    discovery+0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.668)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1c6ce0c8a7c3f5c6cbce138e…
    follows fa7c42e494a7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2624: NUS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.01, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUS1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.