Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2603

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.269). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2602, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2603
    19 Oct 2026, 01:46 UTC

    ATP2B2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP2B2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered068aabffbdc43634

    discovery-0.41 p=0.269 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.269)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    df8d8c9eda0e6431dc5572d8…
    follows 531cec39faea…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2603: ATP2B2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP2B2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.