Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2599

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2598, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2599
    19 Oct 2026, 01:40 UTC

    GPX4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPX4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbfb6b10f66e5651e

    discovery-0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    replication+0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8962d1c9fb2db6ffff15149f…
    follows 38cfb2d354d4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2599: GPX4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18) vs +0.37 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPX4 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GPX4 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.25 p 0.374 (needs p < 6.8e-4)