Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2502

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.140). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2501, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2502
    18 Oct 2026, 23:28 UTC

    GRIK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGRIK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1f3f4f890142a06b

    discovery+0.53 p=0.140 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.140)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    da4783cca8dbf01cdd43f3d5…
    follows 59f799a1cfe1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2502: GRIK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRIK2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.