Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2498

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2497, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2498
    18 Oct 2026, 23:23 UTC

    ALB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionALB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8ab908f048c301ad

    discovery+0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.524 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    31d4294f00c2ac1ca5e8409a…
    follows 47a2d2e70f95…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2498: ALB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.40 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.