Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2490

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.504). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2489, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2490
    18 Oct 2026, 23:12 UTC

    REL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionREL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredffc91d16528176b7

    discovery+0.26 p=0.504 n=9

    replication+0.59 p=0.092 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.504)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7159dd61bad7d680b179b1d4…
    follows 94e895c57b78…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2490: REL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for REL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.