Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2394

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.311). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2393, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2394
    18 Oct 2026, 21:05 UTC

    NTN1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNTN1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredba4ddf464397675c

    discovery-0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.311)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cd469b3e1e6d2ca07f21a1a8…
    follows 68d7be001075…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2394: NTN1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.03, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NTN1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.