Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2386

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.053). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2385, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2386
    18 Oct 2026, 20:54 UTC

    IL10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIL10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered15aeb50cd36b2cda

    discovery-0.66 p=0.053 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.053)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    94bfc14e6a25eae030d7e5f6…
    follows 9de524347f6f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2386: IL10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.