Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2365

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.430). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2364, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2365
    18 Oct 2026, 20:27 UTC

    PTGS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPTGS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered86bacad32601cb0e

    discovery+0.30 p=0.430 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.430)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ad7ed3b54e784f303304c27…
    follows fd577d8fd69b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2365: PTGS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTGS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.