Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2362

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.217). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2361, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2362
    18 Oct 2026, 20:24 UTC

    GPR37

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGPR37 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc16b3c2aab561d23

    discovery+0.46 p=0.217 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.768 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.217)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cdb9d2d88c1fc962fce84b76…
    follows 46a99c6bebfe…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2362: GPR37 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.42 (p 0.086, n 18), 95% CI -0.06 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR37 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.