Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0236

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 235, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0236
    16 Oct 2026, 19:55 UTC

    CDK12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDK12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc482b0f2759c97ad

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    88d9808ede9791e437697a89…
    follows 83ce2c5c86b8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0236: CDK12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDK12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.