Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2300

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2299, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2300
    18 Oct 2026, 18:56 UTC

    CHRNA4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCHRNA4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc3c0e1ce5e6c886b

    discovery-0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.869 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5c4899a7f34edfbe8b92dd85…
    follows c82328fd988f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2300: CHRNA4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHRNA4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.