Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2287

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2286, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2287
    18 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC

    MPO

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMPO in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda3425dde0561a670

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ccb7f30f308a5679ecac9f85…
    follows 11e6225fc8eb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2287: MPO in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MPO in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.