Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2232

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.132). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2231, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2232
    18 Oct 2026, 17:17 UTC

    MYL5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMYL5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered517d036336498bbd

    discovery-0.54 p=0.132 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.132)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    478621478882ee5cc0338a75…
    follows 81e8181a17ec…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2232: MYL5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.68 to -0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYL5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.