Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2219

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2218, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2219
    18 Oct 2026, 16:57 UTC

    SLC41A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC41A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7d1cb127e542408a

    discovery-0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.374 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d380ad6c445e4420f3859201…
    follows 0e70ab730277…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2219: SLC41A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC41A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.