Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2209

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2208, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2209
    18 Oct 2026, 16:46 UTC

    TMEM229B

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTMEM229B in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede470e8bb951a9a85

    discovery+0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.297 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    94314cd89ae8cb35f8a1e481…
    follows 2afe1beee42f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2209: TMEM229B in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM229B in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.