Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0220

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0043; held-out +0.21 p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 219, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0220
    16 Oct 2026, 19:28 UTC

    NR4A2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNR4A2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f2159545a695dac

    discovery-0.84 p=0.0043 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0043; held-out +0.21 p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9ade815f796d9c28f25fc38d…
    follows c989e519f608…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0220: NR4A2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.022, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NR4A2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.