Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2192

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.183). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2191, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2192
    18 Oct 2026, 16:22 UTC

    PPP3CB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP3CB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc2023d78f9ddfbaa

    discovery-0.49 p=0.183 n=9

    replication+0.65 p=0.059 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.183)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    32a93e03df4745c823b590ba…
    follows 33caf54dd2dd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2192: PPP3CB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.14, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP3CB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.