Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2182

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2181, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2182
    18 Oct 2026, 16:08 UTC

    TGM6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTGM6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered086fc624e504e0f8

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.367 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ea685c479e1c7ec7b322e754…
    follows 60cf00905861…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2182: TGM6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TGM6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.