Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2085

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2084, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2085
    18 Oct 2026, 13:42 UTC

    PROX2

    microglia, braak

    predictionPROX2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb17d0d19eea30408

    discovery-0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication+0.47 p=0.201 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0f50ae6bad2fb60f4f611d01…
    follows 3a38c4c464ce…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2085: PROX2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.21, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PROX2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.